Hi
I know this is the million $ question but & when do you think the 1Ds MK111 will be released? Michael says Oct this year.
Denis

What possible use is asking the world in general what they think? Do you believe that a concensus is going to be right, even if one were available?

No one outside of people at the factory in Japan and a few Canon executives around the world know for sure, and they sure aren't about to tell.

Michael

take a look at http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/Canon_1DS_MkIII.html and search for 'Christmas'

In any event, even if (big if) a couple of months ago someone from Canon did indicate a shipping date there's too much that could happen between then and whenever the target date was, to give any confidence.

OTOH, just because Canon managed to tighten up the leaks over the last few months, doesn't mean that the ship will remain water tight for ever.

The 1Ds mk3 is ready, has been for a few months, the thing is, they ask why release it, since the 1Ds mk2 is still unmatched, save for the small lcd.

My take is that after the 1Dmk3 ships for a few months and is "battle" tested then the 1Ds version will be out, id say end of summer..aug/sept.

There's no real reason for them to release it until another manufacturer starts producing full frame sensors of similar resolution.

Well, economics is a pretty "real" reason. I don't think there's any issue that it's at least almost ready for production. I also don't think there's much doubt that when it's available the monthly sales will be higher than the current monthly sales for the 1ds2 - I bet a number of potential buyers for the 1ds2 are waiting, which even further depresses 1ds2 sales. So for every month they delay (for whatever reason) the ROI goes down on the investment they've made in the new version.

But there is no competitor in terms of resolution (unless you move to MF) so canon has the market cornered, the people waiting won't run off and buy something else as they want the quality.

So you're saying that if Canon sells x 1ds2's in November and they make the 1ds3 available at the end of November they won't sell more than x in December?

I would like to think that Canon is ready but may be it will be good to wait for 1D MK3 heavily field tested a few month before announcing the 1Ds MK3, may be towards the end of 2007. Then perhaps by PMA or May in 2008, announce a 1D MK3n ready for Olympic with a really proven machine.

Being not ready to release a model is a good reason not to. The fact that there's no competition isn't. Might be a reason to delay development, but once the development is done you need to get the cash coming in as fast as possible.

Denis, I have been told (extremely unofficially) "towards the end of the year".

Hmmm.... Interesting business model: Spend millions of $$$ or billions of yen developing a new product with bleeding-edge technology, and when it's all ready to go, say to youself, "There's no competition for this product, I think I'll just wait for the competition to catch up before I start selling it and capturing market share with it."

Yah. That makes complete sense.

There are at least three reasons why Canon will release a 1Ds MkIII when it is ready, and not sit on it.

1. Upgrade sales. Many owners of the 1DsMkII will upgrade to a MkIII. (Michael Reichmann will almost surely be one of them!)

2. Higher price and profits for higher performance. The MkII will probably be distinctly better in some significant ways (resolution frame rate, Live View?) and yet cost no more to make, and indeed a new sensor with new fab. methods might even cost a bit less to make than the current one. This would allow the 1Ds MkIII to sell at a higher price and higher profit margin. I would not by be too surprised if the MkIII debuts as the same US$8,000 as the previous two versions did.

3. There is _some_ competition. It strikes me as an over-simplfication to say that the 1Ds has no competition, in the sense than no potential 1Ds customer will ever instead choose a less expensive alternative whose performance is inferior but close enough that the savings are worth it. For some to whom high resolution is the main advantage of a 1Ds, over other good DSLRs, the difference between the 1Ds at 16.5 MP, 5D at 12.7Mp and D2Xs at 12.4MP might not justify the extra thousands, while a jump to 20MP or beyond could tip the balance in favor of a 1Ds MkIII. And some who who want options of both high resolution and high frame rates (over 4fps) ina single camera might prefer a 1D MkIII or D2Xs over the 1Ds MkII, but prefer a 1Ds MkIII with a frame rate higher than 4fps (maybe with a high speed crop mode?) over all current options.

While I agree with your concept, I hope your not serious.

There are thousands of current 1dsMkII users out there that can't wait to throw down another $8k to get a 22mp sensor and all of the new stuff they introduced on the 1dMkIII. (Count me as one). They've never really had to release a camera to regain the lead before, they release it to continue to lead and to make money.

I think whoever said they will wait for the dust to settle on the 1DmkIII before releasing the 1DsMkIII has the right idea. After all they are basically the same camera, and this also follows their traditional pattern ...

So my bet is Oct/Nov time frame.

(while michael is completely right here, it is fun to speculate).

And don't forget the thousands of 1Ds users who were not overwhelmed by the 1DsII, but are now ready to upgrade. I'm pretty sure that the majority of people don't upgrade with every single update and are more likely to upgrade every other update instead.

Yes, I'm one of those, and I'm in no rush. I'd really prefer to see them take their time to MAKE SURE they are putting a thoroughly tested, absolutely top-quality bug-free product on the market before they do so. Remember - putting 22 MP on the same 24*36 frame size means smaller photosites than on the 1DsII, so the technology really needs to be improved and the manufacturing quality impeccable to take advantage of the extra resolution and end-up with superior quality images. I'm sure with all the changes in materials, firmware and manufacturing technology involved, this is no trivial task.

I am not a specialist in respect to sensors, but Canon has described with the 1d Mark 3, that while pixel count has gone up by 25% (8 --> 10MP) they have managed to keep the effective light sensitive surface of each pixel the same. If they can do this again with the 1ds Mark 2, the resulting pixel count would already be 16,6 + 25% = 20,75 MP. THerefore theywould only need a very slight decrease in pixel size to realise 22MP.
Add the 14bit converters from the Mark 3 technology and the resulting better tonality, it may actually be possible to do it in very high quality.

I am curious to see the result.

Bernie

Yup, I'm a (still) happy 1Ds user who, like with computer hardware, wanted to skip a generation.

The Northlight rumours page (as mentioned above ;-) originally started as just a collection of info for my own use - and was never intended to anything other than a bit tongue in cheek ;-) The suggestion of an announcement for IFA at the end of August came from someone visiting a Canon office in Germany and (possibly) hearing a bit more than they should have - as ever I keep a hefty pinch of salt for things like this I hear ;-) It's curious to go back through the archive of rumours for the last few years (I never normally remove anything once it's on the page) ad see how the same stuff keeps re-surfacing -- like the legendary EOS 3D which pops up every six months or so :-)

Mark I agree with you. I would rather that they make sure that everything is worked out before releasing another model. In my opinion, if they put out the 1DsmkIII that is flawed in any way, it is going to hurt them in the long run. Until there is a major advance in the technology, the upgrades are going to be less frequent. I guess the thing I am going to be interested to see is how many of the canon lenses will be able to take advantage of a 22MP sensor. Sure there are likely going to be other desired features in addition to a new sensor but I am going to be interested in seeing the resolving differences with the various glass options.

I think the latest technique is to reduce the spacing between the photo sites which allows the same size receptors to be used and so retain the noise characteristics. Considering 12MP is now coming out on compacts, I would have thought 22 would be fairly easy to achieve on a full frame sensor?

Yes, are the lenses up to it?

The best reason to bring out the MkIII is that it may kick Nikon into producing a full frame, at last!

Yes, while milking the 1Ds mk2 as much as posible, extending its life all the while increasingly developing the 1Ds mk3 while also learning "beta testing" from the 1D mk3. Most of the development cost of the 1Ds mk3 is actually shared with the 1D mk3, which is already out, since the technologies should be basically similar just applied to a larger sensor in the case of the 1Ds mk3. (new battery system, body, lcd, sensor clean, digic 3 etc etc)

Remember when Nikon released the D2h, what happened miraculosly a few months later, bam! the Canon 1D mk2 came out and obliterated Nikons hopes of good sales. I dont think it was coinsidence

Why did Canaon release the 1D mk2, 1D mk2N and now the 1D mk3 all the while only having the 1Ds mk2? Why didnt they release a 1Ds mk2N with a larger LCD and few upgrades, that wouldve increased sales a bit wouldnt it?

The idea that upgraded products are released based on market pressure applied by competing products is reasonably valid. But it certainly isn't the only reason.

However I think most posters on this thread have overlooked the obvious. The competition for the 1DsII is not from Nikon but from Canon's own 5D. Yes, I understand the differences between the 1DsII and the 5D and don't want to go there.

As a bit of a technology geek, I was quite surprised by the general consensus on this site by seasoned photographers suggesting that the 5D produced slightly better images than the 1DsII. Proving once again that you can't judge a product by its spec sheet alone.

If this favourable comparison of the 5D over the 1DsII holds up to further scrutiny, then Canon will likely feel the market pressure to upgrade the1DsII as quickly as possible. From a branding perspective it's not a good thing to have your flagship product usurped by one of your own, much less expensive products.

This also translates in to lost sales for the 1DsII. I was thinking of purchasing Canon's flagship, and more importantly, most expensive DSLR when two things happened. First the 1DIII was released with a larger LCD panel and more friendly user interface. And two, the 5D now has sufficient distribution to provide real world comparisons with the 1DsII.

Given the significant price difference between the two cameras I've settled on the 5D. Budget permitting I can purchase a new 1DsIII when it's released and have the 5D as a full frame backup that's also much lighter to carry around. The emphasis here is on the 'budget permitting' part.

Add all of this together and you can see where sales of the 1DsII are likely to slow down. This is evidenced by its recent drop in price. The assumption being that the drop in price is an attempt by Canon to stimulate lagging sales.

In summary, I think Canon will release the 1DsIII once it's ready. They may wait for production to ramp-up before they announce it as I'm sure they'll want to be able to ship it quickly. They may also be waiting for current inventory levels to drop a little further.

Just my two cents.

~iGuy

Good point Guy...

Not long after the 5D came out I pointed out to Canon (Oz) that I thought it was a little too close to the quality of the 1DSII for what it cost and that it had stripped the 1DSII of much of it's value.

I think Canon were banking on people buying the 1DSII over the 5D for it's toughness alone, but given that you could get almost 3 5D's for the same money it was hard to justify.

The idea that fewer pixels doesn't necessarily mean less detail had been put forward by Nikon D2x users long before the release of the 5D, but it seems that the concept became easier to accept for some once the cheaper contender became a Canon camera.

Similarly, it took Canon to release the 1DIII for people to accept that smaller pixels can still deliver more DR.

The key to understand all this is simply to integrate the idea that technology is moving fast enough that high school physics knowledge isn't enough to predict the capabilities and limitations of the next generation of complex systems like sensors/processors/converters.

Cheers,
Bernard

Pixel pitch is smaller, not necessarily the pixel size - old hobby horse.

As to the rest of this thread canon will do a Johnny Depp and seek the opportune moment.

Photo Plus Expo is Oct 18 -20 in NYC. So if I were to guess I would expect to see the 1dsMk111 intoduced then. It has been discussed from what I have heard to be at 22mpx and I guess as the 1dMkII at 14bit. However I was originally told that it would have been introduced at PMA.

Usually I don't care one way or the other. But I was planning on adding new gear this year so it was relevant for me. So as it is, I may not be interested having added the Mamiya 645AFDII and Leaf 65. So my Canon needs are possibly really met with the 1dMkII to replace my 1dMkII.

I like Canon gear but some real information sometimes would be better for planning out equipment upgrades. With the Mamiya/Leaf I know I am good to go for some time and they have been more forthcoming about upgrades and information.

With that said, the ZD might be a real option depending on your shooting requirements. The price point is pretty good.

My thinking on the lenses is this: They just invested how much to come up with the 16-35 and the 85 and they say that both have been improved for digital. I can't imagine them doing this knowing that the 1Ds3 would instantly antiquate them (not to mention piss off how many purchasers of these lenses). If anything, I would think that Canon would prefer to put a cap on the pixel count before they would antiquate their lenses. I know for me if I would have to replace a number of lenses I would think twice about upgrading to a 1Ds3 and I might go so far as to think of picking up another 1Ds2 instead.

I tried two of the new 16-35mm II lenses and the amount of improvement was marginal. There was less CA and flare but the image sharpness and distortion the corners and edges were marginally better at some focal lengths and not as good at others compared to my 16-35 I. These comparisons were concordant on the 5D and 1Dsmk2. I suspect that the improvement on the new 1Dsmk3 is going to be primarily in image quality unrelated to resolution. I would speculate the DR and less noise especially at the higher isos.

I also have the newer 85mm II 1.2 lens. I did not have my old I version so I cannot compare resolution differences directly.