I think it depends on the viability of the camera as a platform.
For >6x4.5-sized medium format SLRs that are current (as in, still in production), the market seems to boil down to two: the Hy6 and the Mamiay RZ 67. And the RZ is well-known, so I don't expect it to suddenly take the market by storm.
That leaves the Hy6 platform as the big unknown. If it evolves to become the new Hasselblad V-series, then my guess is that we will eventually see 6x6 sensors. But if it doesn't do so well, all medium format shooters will be on either 6x45 systems or out-of-production 6x6's. I think the likelyhood of a 6x6 sensor in that case would be dramatically lower.
Sinar has cited a 48x48mm sensor--whether that is actually in the works or just something that marketing dreamed up to differentiate the Hy6 from the 645 competition, I have no idea. My guess is that the Hy6 camp would like some differentiating value ASAP from the regular 645 camp, and that the larger sensor is in the works. A full 56mm x 56mm is probably at least another generation away, at best. (Sad, for me too, because I would love one as well).
-Brad
QUOTE (jonstewart @ Oct 12 2007, 05:04 PM)
Reading a lot of the other threads at the moment, and it strikes me that nobody's asked that question.
We have the Hy6 (by all the brands) coming out, but will we ever have a full size sensor for it? It seems to me that the shrinking sales of MF (particularly with digital backs), as evidenced by Hasselblads apparent marketing strategies to consolidate their sales / customer base, and Phase One's presumable panic at the moment, that any company or companies would have the financial muscle to develop such a sensor.
It seems to me that such a development will
have to come from a consortium, and with the market fragmenting in different, and more closed, directions, this seems unlikely.
Any thoughts on the matter would be of interest.