A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Sensor Fab: Pt 1

Camera & Technology

February 27, 2024 ·

Dan Wells

State of Sensors

Despite advances in camera technology, there has not been a significant increase in still image resolution since 2019, except for a notable 40 MP APS-C sensor found in some Fujifilm cameras (Sony Sourced).

Similarly, dynamic range improvements have stagnated, with newer fast sensors and the mentioned 40 MP sensor actually LOSING dynamic range compared to older, slower sensors.

Color rendering, determined by sensor color filters, has remained unchanged for years. The preference for color output varies by brand and personal taste – I love to photograph trees, and Fujifilm has gorgeous greens.

We have seen remarkable changes in sensor speed since 2019 – there was only one stacked sensor camera on the market when the Standard Pixel sensors came out in 2019, and the Sony A9 was a relatively low resolution curiosity.

Stacked Sensors…sounds like a pyramid scheme.

Today’s higher-end bodies tend to use stacked sensors by default, and a successor to that original stacked-sensor A9 is using a global shutter sensor, the next step up in speed. Essentially all sensor engineering effort, at least that which we’ve seen enter production, since the 3.76 µm Standard Pixel in 2019 has been aimed at speed, rather than low-ISO image quality.

The top three are different sizes of the same basic sensor – the Sony Standard Pixel sensor with its 3.76 µm pixels, joined by two older Sony sensors – the 50 MP medium format sensor from all the way back in 2014 and 2017’s Nikon D850 sensor (a Nikon-modified Sony sensor).

At the very top is the limited production 150 MP Phase One sensor, followed by the 100 MP medium format sensor in several Fujifilm and Hasselblad models, the 61 MP A7rIV (etc.) sensor, the Nikon sensor that is featured in the D850, Z7, Z7II, Z8 and Z9 (the last two use a stacked derivative) and the old 50 MP medium format sensor.

How the D850 sensor and the 50 MP medium format sensor compare is a matter of taste, and some people would sneak 2020’s Canon R5 sensor into the top 5 -it is very similar in performance to the D850 sensor, although its DxOMark score is marginally lower due to a bit more noise.

Looking at comparison images, to my eye, the R5 and D850 are very, very close, the 50 MP medium format and A7R IV sensors are a little better and also very close to each other, and the 100 MP medium format sensor is significantly better than any of the above.

The exotic 150 MP sensor is a little better than the 100 MP sensor, but not by as much as I would expect – quite possibly because they are both exceeding the capabilities of the test charts.

What happened to the 100MP?

We’ve been hearing that a 100 MP full-frame sensor is about a year away since at least 2020, and as of this writing, I think it’s STILL about a year away (late 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest, with real availability probably in 2025). It may STILL be a year away at this time next year.

My best speculation is that three or four factors combined to delay a very high resolution full-frame sensor. One is probably COVID – development timelines got pushed back, and camera sales slowed.

They are now slowly recovering (interchangeable lens camera sales have increased slightly each year since hitting a bottom a little over 5 million units in 2020) – but they’ll probably never again reach the 15 million or so interchangeable lens cameras sold in 2012, nor even the almost 9 million sold in 2017.

The decline in interchangeable lens camera sales might not be as significant as it appears – the “missing” cameras are primarily models that don’t prioritize image quality.

What happened to volume is that the bottom fell out of the high-volume, low-profit Canon Rebel/Nikon D3x00 market, while the higher end models hit a COVID hiccup, but continued to grow.

The 6 million or so interchangeable lens cameras sold in 2023 almost certainly include MORE full-frame cameras than the 15 million sold in 2012, which was before most of the affordable full-frame models were released.

They certainly include many more medium format models, still a tiny sliver of the market, than any year before Fujifilm introduced the GFX 50S in 2017.

The medium format camera market in 2024 is likely to be ten times bigger than it was in 2016.

The Nikon D850, with the first of today’s top sensors (except for the old 50 MP medium format sensor), barely snuck into the 2017 sales figures.

The second factor is just how good sensors have gotten overall. Still image quality as a whole is ridiculously high, and it’s outstripping our ability to display it.

I have never used the 150 MP Phase One sensor, but I know the 100 MP sensor extremely well, and it makes gallery-quality 40×60” prints. There is no digital display on Earth that can display its resolution or dynamic range, unless the one of a kind custom hardware in the Las Vegas Sphere can do it.

It takes a minimum of a 16×24” print to see the resolution difference from its 61 MP relative or the D850 (and probably R5, which I haven’t used) sensors, and there’s nothing keeping someone from building a camera with those sensors but with color filters as good as Fujifilm’s.

The only purpose of sensors this good is to print big, and most images are viewed on screens.

The third factor affecting the full-frame pixel race is affordable medium format. During the heyday of full-frame pixel monsters from about 2012 to 2021, medium format digital was extremely expensive and specialized. The only medium format cameras under $10,000 even near the end of that period used the old 50 MP sensor, which was competitive with the best full-frame sensors, but not clearly superior.

As of early 2024, photographers who focus on landscapes, architecture, still-life, or portraits with a deliberate approach have four excellent camera options under $10,000.

These options include two models each from Fujifilm and Hasselblad, all equipped with a high-quality 100 MP medium format sensor.

One notable example is the Fujifilm GFX 100S, which is available for $4,399 as of February 1, 2024. For those looking for full-frame cameras at a lower cost, older models on clearance can offer great value. For instance, a refurbished Nikon Z7 can provide exceptional image quality for a fraction of the price.

Considering the effect of inflation, the amount of money that used to buy a high-resolution full-frame camera around 2019 can now get you a medium format camera with better resolution and dynamic range, offering an improvement of one stop.

If a 100 MP full-frame sensor offers nothing more than resolution, brands like Fujifilm and Hasselblad can easily offer a superior option by using a larger 160 MP version of their existing sensor.

Medium format cameras have become so affordable that for photographers prioritizing supreme image quality over speed or video capabilities, choosing a GFX or Hasselblad is likely the best decision.

Sometime around 2010 to 2012, full-frame went from a curiosity at the extreme upper end of the market to a viable option. That same transition just happened to medium format in the past couple of years.

Medium format isn’t for everybody – even the new and much more versatile GFX 100 II will not be anywhere near as versatile as a good 40-50 MP full-frame camera.

Medium format probably IS for many of the people who made up the core of the D850/Z7/A7r IV market a few years ago – photographers whose subjects move slowly if at all, and who love to print big.

A key reason we haven’t seen a 100 MP full-frame camera, expected to have a top speed of around 5 frames per second (fps), is because it would directly compete with 100 MP medium format cameras, which also operate at around 5 fps. Additionally, such a full-frame camera would likely be produced in smaller quantities, making it only slightly less expensive than its medium format counterparts.

Stay tuned for Part 2…

*Note from Swindy the Editor: Dan asked for help finding images for this article as he was concerned about what we would show talking about sensors. “Don’t worry “- I told him I’d have great fun trying to create images for his article about digital sensors. We’ll see if he likes it. Use of Midjourney and Open AI’s Dall-E were used to create the images for these articles.

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Dan Wells

See all articles by Dan Wells

Dan Wells, "Shuttterbug" on the trail, is a landscape photographer, long-distance hiker and student in the Master of Divinity program at Harvard Divinity School. He lives in Cambridge, MA when not in wild places photographing and contemplating our connection to the natural world. Dan's images try to capture the spirit he finds in places where, in the worlds of the Wilderness Act of 1964, "Man himself is but a visitor". He has hiked 230 miles of Vermont's Long Trail and 450 miles of the Pacific Crest Trail with his cameras, as well as photographing in numerous National Parks, Seashores and Forests over the years - often in the offseason when few people think to be there. In the summer of 2020, Dan plans to hike a stretch of hundreds of miles on the Pacific Crest Trail, focusing on his own and others' spiritual connection to these special places, and making images that document these connections. Over years of personal work and teaching photography, Dan has used a variety of equipment (presently Nikon Z7 and Fujifilm APS-C). He is looking for the perfect combination of light weight, ruggedness and superb image quality.